Here's a paradox that should make any high school senior's head spin: Americans have never been more skeptical about the value of a four-year college degree, yet the economic data shows that college graduates continue to earn dramatically more than their peers without degrees—and the gap keeps widening. Only 22 percent of U.S. adults now say the cost of college is worth it if students have to take out loans, according to a late 2023 Pew Research Center survey. Nearly half believe a degree is less important for landing a good job than it was 20 years ago. And yet, recent college graduates in their early twenties earn roughly $24,000 more per year than their peers with only a high school diploma, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data—a premium that has grown over time and doubles over the course of a career.

This disconnect between public perception and economic reality represents one of the most consequential informational gaps in American life today. The decision about whether to pursue a four-year degree, and if so where and in what field, will shape a person's finances, career trajectory, and even life expectancy for decades. It's a choice that families are increasingly agonizing over as tuition has climbed and student debt has ballooned to $1.65 trillion nationwide. Yet the conversation is often dominated by anecdotes—the philosophy major working as a barista, the electrician who earns six figures—rather than a clear-eyed look at what the numbers show.

What follows is an attempt to cut through the noise and present the evidence as it actually stands. The bottom line is more nuanced than either "college is always worth it" or "college is a scam" would suggest. For most students, at most schools, pursuing a four-year degree remains a strong financial investment—the typical graduate can expect a median 12.5 percent return on investment, according to new Federal Reserve Bank of New York research published in 2025. But that average conceals enormous variation by field of study, institution, and individual circumstances. For some students, alternative paths like trade school, apprenticeships, or community college may offer superior returns. The key is matching the right path to the right person.

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The Earnings Premium Is Real—and Growing

Let's start with the core question families want answered: how much more will a college graduate actually earn? The data here is remarkably consistent across sources. Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce estimates that bachelor's degree holders earn a median of $2.8 million over their careers, compared to $1.6 million for those with only a high school diploma—a premium of roughly $1.2 million. The Social Security Administration, using longitudinal administrative records that follow workers throughout their careers, puts the lifetime earnings gap at approximately $900,000 for men and $630,000 for women with bachelor's degrees compared to high school graduates.

These lifetime figures can feel abstract, so consider the annual numbers. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data from the third quarter of 2024, the median weekly earnings for workers with only a high school diploma were $946, compared to $1,533 for those with a bachelor's degree—a 62 percent premium. For young adults specifically, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reports that recent college graduates aged 22 to 27 earned a median income of $60,000 in 2023, while their peers with only a high school diploma earned $36,000.

What makes these findings particularly striking is that the gap has widened over time, not narrowed. In 1990, recent college graduates earned about $15,000 more per year than their high school-educated peers; by 2023, that gap had grown to $24,000. Contrary to the intuition that degrees are becoming less valuable in a changing economy, the wage premium for college has been hovering near all-time highs.

The premium doesn't just materialize in the early career years and then plateau. Research economist David Deming has documented that while a truck driver and a newly minted college graduate might earn similar starting salaries around $50,000, their earnings trajectories diverge sharply. Jobs typically held by high school graduates tend to see minimal wage growth over time—a trucker with twenty years of experience doesn't earn dramatically more than one with two years of experience. College-educated workers, by contrast, often see their salaries double or more over their careers as they advance into management, specialized roles, or higher-paying positions.

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What About the Debt?

Of course, the earnings premium doesn't mean much if it's swallowed up by crushing debt. This is where the public's skepticism about college value has the most legitimacy. Outstanding student loan debt in the United States totals approximately $1.81 trillion, spread across more than 42 million borrowers. The median debt for borrowers with outstanding balances falls between $20,000 and $24,999, according to Federal Reserve surveys, though those who pursued graduate degrees tend to carry significantly higher balances.

Here's what often gets lost in the conversation, though: the net price students actually pay for college has been falling in recent years, even as sticker prices continue to climb. The average net price for a four-year degree was about $30,000 in 2024, down from a high of roughly $40,000 in 2015, according to Federal Reserve analysis of Education Department data. This decline reflects expanded financial aid, scholarships, and grant programs that reduce out-of-pocket costs, particularly at public institutions and for lower-income students. Students who borrowed for their bachelor's degrees graduated with an average of $29,300 in debt in 2023, according to College Board data—a meaningful sum, but far from the six-figure horror stories that dominate headlines.

The more accurate way to think about college's financial proposition is as a total investment that includes both direct costs (tuition, fees, books) and opportunity costs (earnings foregone while in school). By this measure, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York calculates the total cost of a college degree at roughly $180,000 in 2024—up from $140,000 in the late 1990s. Against this investment, the typical graduate can expect a median 12.5 percent annual return, which economists characterize as "well above the threshold for a sound investment."

That said, averages can be misleading. About a quarter of college graduates may not see a positive return on investment at all, according to the Fed's analysis. The ROI varies significantly based on how long students take to graduate (five or six years dramatically reduces returns), which institution they attend, and crucially, what they study.

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Not All Degrees Are Created Equal

Perhaps no finding in the college-value research is more consistent than this: field of study matters enormously. Engineering, computer science, nursing, and economics degrees tend to have payoffs of $500,000 or more over a lifetime, according to research from the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity. Business and accounting degrees offer strong returns. At the other end of the spectrum, education degrees have the lowest lifetime ROI—sometimes even negative after accounting for costs. Liberal arts, humanities, and fine arts degrees consistently cluster near the bottom of earnings rankings.

This variation creates a challenge for the "is college worth it" conversation, because the answer genuinely depends on what you study. A computer science degree from a state flagship university represents a fundamentally different investment than an English degree from an expensive private college. The median ROI for bachelor's degrees overall is $160,000, but that belies a range from over $1 million for some programs to significant losses for others.

Institution matters too, though perhaps less than conventional wisdom suggests. Elite private universities generally deliver strong returns, with Ivy League graduates enjoying exceptional outcomes. But the research from Georgetown's Center on Education and the Workforce shows that public flagship universities often punch well above their weight—delivering returns comparable to far more expensive private institutions at a fraction of the cost. For students who don't gain admission to highly selective schools, a well-chosen public university can be an excellent investment.

What's more troubling is that roughly 29 percent of federal Pell Grant and student loan funding flows to programs that don't deliver a positive ROI for students—essentially subsidizing degrees that leave graduates worse off financially than if they'd never enrolled. This represents a significant policy failure and a serious trap for students who aren't well-informed about their options.

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The Alternatives Deserve Serious Consideration

The traditional four-year college path isn't the only route to economic security, and the alternatives are getting more attention than they have in decades. The U.S. Department of Labor reported a 64 percent rise in registered apprenticeship enrollment between 2012 and 2021, reflecting growing interest in learn-while-you-earn pathways. A Junior Achievement survey found that 49 percent of teenagers now believe a high school diploma plus a two-year degree or trade apprenticeship is the highest level of education they need to succeed.

The economics of skilled trades have become increasingly compelling. The average starting salary for newly credentialed tradespeople ranges from $40,000 to $60,000 per year—overlapping significantly with starting salaries for college graduates. High-demand trades like nuclear power reactor operators, elevator technicians, and air traffic controllers can command median salaries well into six figures. Crucially, these workers begin earning immediately rather than accumulating debt for four years, which significantly affects their lifetime wealth accumulation.

Trade schools and vocational programs typically cost a fraction of four-year universities. The average annual tuition at a public two-year college was about $3,990 in 2024-25, compared to over $11,600 at public four-year institutions. Many apprenticeship programs go further—paying workers from day one while providing training. The U.S. Department of Labor reports that the average apprentice earns $15 per hour during training, with wages increasing as skills develop.

Community colleges represent a particularly interesting middle path. Associate degree holders earn roughly 20 percent more than those with only a high school diploma, and certain two-year degrees in healthcare, technology, and skilled trades can deliver returns comparable to or exceeding median bachelor's degrees. Research from multiple states shows that graduates of community college baccalaureate programs—now available in 24 states—see substantial earnings gains, with employment rates often matching or exceeding those of traditional four-year university graduates in similar fields.

The caveat with alternative pathways is that they require more intentionality about career direction. A four-year degree, even in a lower-paying field, provides some optionality—graduates can pivot into various career paths, pursue graduate school, or take time to figure out their direction. Trade credentials and technical certificates, by contrast, prepare you for specific occupations. If you're confident about wanting to become an electrician, HVAC technician, or registered nurse, alternative pathways may be superior. If you're uncertain about your direction, the broader exposure of a college education has value.

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Beyond the Paycheck

The economic returns of education are the easiest to measure, but they're not the whole story. A growing body of research documents that college graduates experience advantages that extend well beyond higher salaries.

Start with health and longevity. A January 2025 study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation found that the life expectancy gap between the most and least educated Americans has grown to nearly 11 years. College graduates live an average of 84.2 years—if they were a country, their life expectancy would rank fourth globally. Those without a high school diploma, by contrast, have an average life expectancy of 73.5 years, which would rank 137th globally. The gap has widened significantly since 2000 and shows no signs of narrowing.

Multiple mechanisms likely drive this relationship. College graduates are 47 percent more likely to have health insurance provided through their jobs, according to data from the Association of Public and Land-grant Universities. They're more likely to work in jobs with lower physical health risks, more likely to have access to paid sick leave, and more likely to engage in healthier behaviors. Whether these outcomes are caused by college itself or reflect other characteristics of people who pursue higher education is debated among researchers—but the correlation is robust.

College graduates also participate more actively in civic life. They're more likely to vote, volunteer, donate to charity, and engage with their communities. Research shows that college-educated citizens are more politically knowledgeable and less likely to support authoritarian political positions. While the causal mechanisms here are also contested, the association between education and civic engagement is among the strongest in social science.

There are also intangible benefits that resist quantification. College provides structured time for intellectual exploration, exposure to diverse perspectives and people, opportunities to develop social networks that can pay dividends throughout a career, and space to mature before entering the workforce. For many students, particularly those from less advantaged backgrounds, college represents a transformative experience that changes how they see themselves and their possibilities.

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Making the Decision

So how should a family actually think about this choice? Several principles emerge from the evidence.

First, be clear-eyed about the specific investment you're considering. The relevant question isn't "is college worth it?" but "is this degree, at this institution, at this price worth it for this student?" A computer science degree at an in-state public university with generous financial aid is a completely different proposition than a fine arts degree at an expensive private college requiring maximum borrowing. Research the outcomes for specific programs—graduation rates, employment rates, and median earnings for graduates are now publicly available through the federal College Scorecard.

Second, don't dismiss alternatives reflexively. For students with clear vocational interests, trade schools and apprenticeship programs can provide faster routes to economic security with far less debt. Community college, whether as a final destination or a stepping stone to a four-year degree, offers an affordable way to explore options. Gap years can provide valuable time to clarify direction before committing to an expensive four-year path.

Third, factor in non-economic considerations honestly. If a student is genuinely passionate about a lower-paying field and understands the financial implications, that's a legitimate choice. The life satisfaction that comes from meaningful work has real value, even if it doesn't show up in earnings data. But students should make that choice with eyes open, understanding the trade-offs involved.

Fourth, treat completion as essential, not optional. Students who start college but don't finish often end up in the worst of both worlds—carrying debt without the earnings premium that comes with a degree. Only about 40 percent of students complete their bachelor's degrees in four years, and those who take five or six years see substantially lower returns on investment. Be realistic about the likelihood of completion given the student's academic preparation, institutional support, and personal circumstances.

Finally, recognize that this calculation keeps changing. The labor market continues to evolve, with growing demand for workers who can combine technical skills with judgment and interpersonal abilities. Some employers are dropping degree requirements for certain positions. The value of any given educational path today may not perfectly predict its value in twenty years.

What's clear is that the question "is college worth it?" has always been too simple. For most students, in most circumstances, a four-year degree remains one of the best investments they can make—but the returns depend heavily on what they study, where they study it, how much they pay, and whether they finish. For others, alternative paths offer superior routes to prosperity. The key is matching the right path to the right person, armed with accurate information rather than outdated assumptions or trendy skepticism.

The stakes couldn't be higher. Educational choices shape not just careers and incomes but health outcomes, civic participation, and quality of life across decades. In a world where attention tends to gravitate toward either "college is essential" or "college is a scam," the truth—as usual—is more nuanced and more useful.

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